Under the background of "dual carbon", recycled aluminum welcomes the development opportunities of the times
　　 Based on the long-term logic of tight supply side, we predict that the global aluminum-based materials may maintain a tight balance between supply and demand before 2025, and the gap between supply and demand may continue to expand after 2025, and aluminum prices may stabilize. There are liters in the middle. Under the background of "dual carbon", the supply structure dominated by thermal power aluminum is facing transformation, and the replacement space for hydropower aluminum is limited. Recycled aluminum may become an important source of supply in the future. We predict that the CAGR of recycled aluminum output may reach 8.2% in 20-30 years, and in the future The long-term growth rate may be maintained at around 4%. At the same time, the profitability of recycled aluminum is positively correlated with aluminum prices, and recycled aluminum companies may benefit from rising aluminum prices at the same time, which is expected to enter the development stage of both volume and price. In addition, we are optimistic about companies that have both recycled aluminum and aluminum processing businesses.
　　Growth prospects: It is estimated that the CAGR of output in 20-30 years will reach 8.2%, and it is expected to be maintained at 4% in the later period.
　　Referring to the mature industrial system in Europe, the closed-loop industrial system has been continuously improved under the support of policies. The compound growth rate of secondary aluminum output in the past 60 years has reached 5.5%. growth across economic cycles. In contrast, since 2000, China's recycled aluminum industry has experienced two stages of development: from 2000 to 2007, with the rapid expansion of China's aluminum processing capacity, new scrap aluminum supported the rapid growth of the industry; from 2008 to 2019, with the rapid expansion of production capacity The growth rate has slowed down, the resource recycling system has been continuously improved, and the relay of old aluminum scrap to new aluminum scrap continues to support the development of the industry. And before 2030, China is expected to usher in a stage of high scrap aluminum scrap volume, and the continuous improvement of the resource recovery system will support the short-term rapid development of the industry. We predict that the compound growth rate of China's secondary aluminum output will be about 8.2% from 2020 to 2030, and the industry will continue to grow in the long term. Growth center is expected to remain at around 4%.
　　Prosperity analysis: Under the background of "double carbon", secondary aluminum may enter a boom stage of rising volume and price
　　Under the background of "dual carbon", it is expected that the tight supply and demand of aluminum will face expansion, the price of aluminum may remain high, and there is further growth potential, and secondary aluminum may enter a boom stage of rising volume and price. In terms of demand, the continuous advancement of urbanization and the continuous development of the new energy industry have driven the demand for aluminum to maintain a relatively high growth rate. On the supply side, the supply structure with China's thermal power aluminum as an important component has problems of high energy consumption and high emissions, limited capacity expansion, and is facing transformation. Hydropower aluminum and recycled aluminum are the two major transformation routes, but the production capacity of hydropower aluminum is limited. Under the background that the gap between supply and demand may continue to expand, recycled aluminum may be the main supply increase in the future. At the same time, recycled aluminum, as a better development path, is expected to be continuously favorable by policies, and there may be room for industry growth to exceed expectations.
　　Current status of the industry: the concentration is not high, and there are cost control barriers. We are optimistic about the recycled aluminum + aluminum processing model. The
　　current industry concentration is not high. The capital market is accelerating the layout of this track, but at the same time there are some leading companies that have begun to take shape. We think it is a better time window to invest in this track. There are two profit models: "recycled aluminum" or "recycled aluminum + aluminum processing". The recycled aluminum business has low profit margins, high sensitivity to material costs and funds, and it may be difficult to achieve rapid capacity expansion if only the recycled aluminum business is deployed; while aluminum processing companies deploy recycled aluminum to meet customers' emission reduction needs while reducing costs, which has inherent Expansion motivation, and more advantages in resource channels and relegation utilization. In terms of industry barriers, cost control capabilities represented by resources and funding channels in the short term are the main barriers to the industry, and related technologies that support the high-quality development of the industrial chain are long-term barriers to the industry.
　　Risk warning: the actual demand for aluminum is lower than expected; the release of overseas electrolytic aluminum production capacity exceeds expectations; the construction of domestic recycling system or related policies is lower than expected.